DAX Index: Is It the Right Time to Buy? Here’s What the Forecast Shows
- Nicola Abis
- Sep 15
- 3 min read
After a strong rally at the beginning of the year and again between April and May, the DAX Index has entered a prolonged sideways phase. What can investors expect in the final quarter of 2025? Let’s take a look at the latest data to understand whether market trends are about to shift.
Volume Profile
The chart above shows the DAX Index’s volume profile.
Risk Factor: The highest trading volumes of 2025 are currently clustered near the peaks. This should never be underestimated, as such concentration often coincides with market tops that have triggered significant pullbacks.
Positive Factor: The lower-volume zone (yellow box) is currently supporting prices, which remain above the upward trendline without breaking it. Another key signal is the shape this broad range—starting in June—is taking: the lows recorded in early August and September are both rising, with neither having broken the previous low so far.
DAX Index Seasonality Statistics
You can see in this chart the seasonal trends of the DAX Index, with prices normalized on our dashboard (this method helps eliminate statistical distortions caused by extreme or unusual price years).
We can highlight three key observations:
1) The Power of Seasonality
All the sideways movement the DAX has shown since June was fully anticipated by our dashboard. (Remember, this pattern is generated from the start of the year—the software does not use 2025 price data when producing its statistics.)
2) The Most Bearish Period for the DAX
Historically, the worst stretch for the DAX runs from September 17 to October 1. Looking at 40 years of data, 60% of years during this period experienced declines, with an average loss of 4.95%. Not a shocking statistic—so it should be taken with caution—but it does indicate a risk-reward skewed toward the downside.
3) The Dax Index Year-End Rally
DAX Index Forecast: From October onward, the typical upward surge that defines the year-end rally begins. Our AI automatically optimizes the best intervals, analyzing over 32,000 strategies in just 2 seconds, and identifies the optimal window for going long:
Below, you can see how your portfolio would have grown from the 1980s to today by following this strategy. These are concrete facts and figures that demonstrate the power of our dashboard and the advantage of using professional tools in your trading.
It’s important to note that seasonality reflects an average trend. As a result, these periods can sometimes start a little earlier or later than expected.
How should you handle it? Like any investment technique, it requires knowledge of the right entry strategies and proper contextualization within a broader market cycle—exactly what we teach in our training courses.
Of course, not every year will be an exact copy of another. But over the long term, understanding these trends provides a clear and undeniable advantage. This isn’t just an opinion—it’s supported by facts, backtests, and numerical evidence. Seasonality is also one of the few techniques validated by academic research.
A significant signal will appear when the strength indicators on our dashboard start turning upward. For now, the overall momentum is still tilted to the downside, but current support levels and volume patterns deserve careful attention.
Watch the Timing!
Recently, the DAX has been moving on a 45-day cycle—a timing pattern that should always be closely monitored and is set to act this very week.
Time will tell if the statistics hold true this round as well, but it’s worth noting that historically, when the DAX reached mid-September with positive performance, the year-end close saw further gains in nearly 90% of years.
Anyone interested in learning more about these techniques or moving on to using professional-grade tools can reach out to us via chat or email.
Happy trading to everyone!
Disclaimer: The materials provided on this website are for informational, instructional, and educational purposes only and should never be interpreted as investment advice, financial guidance, or any form of recommendation.
